Oil finds support, Gold crushed on global central bank tightening, Cryptos waver

  • China’s oil demand stood at 14.6 million bpd, +17% y/y, but down from a month ago
  • Strong dollar killing gold as more rate hikes penciled in by Fed
  • Global crypto market barely holds onto the $1 trillion level, down 3.5% to $1.02T

Oil

Crude prices are trying to find support as the global growth outlook remains vulnerable to further shocks from aggressive rate hiking campaigns.  The Fed will keep the short-term outlook volatile as they are eyeing further rate hikes, while China rushes to deliver stimulus to aid their struggling post-COVID recovery. Today, the ECB signaled montetary policy is going to get a lot more restrictive. The news overnight was bearish for the crude demand outlook as New Zealand entered a technical recession, China’s industrial production and retail sales data declined as expected, and a robust Aussie jobs report inverted the yield curve for the first time since 2008. 

Oil might find some support as energy traders expect China’s recovery to only improve and as Wall Street doubts Fed Chair Powell will be able to deliver on his hawkish threats. 

Gold

Gold is getting picked on as investors brace for more central bank tightening and record highs for stocks. Non-interest bearing gold needs the global bond market selloff to ease up, before investors will test these waters. Gold is vulnerable to a plunge towards $1900 now that we are bracing for more tightening by both the Fed and ECB.  

Crypto

Crypto headlines remain mixed, which is not helping Bitcoin rebound from its recent lows. Another bankrupt crypto exchange in the spotlight, as Bittrex tries to allow withdrawals. BlackRock nears the filing of a Bitcoin ETF.

It is hard to get excited about cryptos when some of the favorite ones with what was believed to have attractive growth potential might be deemed securities. Until the regulatory environment is better, cryptos might struggle here.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.

Ed Moya

Latest posts by Ed Moya (see all)

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  • EUR/USD: Dollar wavers on slower pace of Treasury Refunding Sales and mixed labor data – 1 November 2023
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