Ecoinometrics highlights the potential for Bitcoin to surge to $140K-$4.5M post-halving, fueled by ETF inflows and historical growth trends.
Bitcoin continued its upward trajectory on Tuesday, reaching a new high of over $89,000. This marks a significant increase from its $62,000 valuation just a month earlier.
Notably, the world’s leading cryptocurrency has gained more than 40% in just a few weeks. Despite this impressive rally, Bitcoin’s growth still lags behind the average historical trajectory typically seen after halving events.
Comparing Halving Cycles
Historically, Bitcoin’s halving cycles have triggered substantial price rallies. However, the current cycle has seen relatively modest gains so far.
According to a recent report by CME Group, after the first halving in 2012, Bitcoin’s price surged by 8,447% within a year.
The 2016 halving saw a 290% increase, pushing Bitcoin to nearly $20,000. More recently, after the 2020 halving, the cryptocurrency rallied by 559%, surpassing $60,000. However, post-2024 halving, Bitcoin has displayed lower upward movement that contrasts with the explosive growth observed in prior cycles.
Bitcoin Could Reach $4.5M Price if History Repeats
Despite this, data from Ecoinometrics suggests the possibility of a significant future surge. Their analysis highlights a potential price range of $140,000 to $4.5 million.
According to the analytic platform, if Bitcoin mirrors the trajectory of past cycles, it could enter six-figure territory within months, especially with sustained ETF inflows.
Bitcoin hits a new all-time high, but remains below its historical post-halving growth trajectory.
Getting closer though. pic.twitter.com/XqTMJ5ezVg
— ecoinometrics (@ecoinometrics) November 11, 2024
Broader Market Trends and Comparison
While Bitcoin has experienced strong gains, it has not yet rallied in parallel with gold, which recently reached record highs, according to CME Group’s report.
Gold’s rise has been driven by widespread central-bank buying and growing concerns over budget deficits in major economies. These deficits, coupled with loose monetary policies, have made fiat currencies less attractive to investors seeking safer, hard assets. CME Group suggests that similar forces could eventually favor Bitcoin.
Historically, Bitcoin thrived during periods of low interest rates, gaining a first-mover advantage as the dominant digital asset. However, current interest rates remain above zero, and inflation levels are higher than pre-pandemic norms, potentially limiting central banks’ ability to ease monetary policy further.
