Bitcoin is on the verge of facing its longest sideways movement in a halving year, with no new ATH in over 30 weeks.
Bitcoin’s price movement during the 2024 halving cycle has triggered attention due to its extended sideways trend. Ki Young Ju, CEO and founder of CryptoQuant, points out that if a bull market does not emerge within the next 14 days, Bitcoin will experience its longest period of sideways movement in a halving year.
285 days have passed in 2024. If there is no #Bitcoin bull market within the next 14 days, this will mark the longest sideways in a halving year in history. pic.twitter.com/JWHkgHC27C
— Ki Young Ju (@ki_young_ju) October 11, 2024
Historically, this point in previous halving cycles has shown signs of strong upward growth, but 2024’s cycle deviates from the historical trend. This unusual performance raises questions about whether the expected bull run will occur or continue to be delayed.
Comparing 2024 with Previous Halving Cycles
Per Young Ju’s chart, in the 2024 halving cycle, Bitcoin’s return index remains relatively flat, hovering just below a 1.5x cumulative return.
Compared to previous cycles, the growth is notably slower, with no significant upward trend emerging. At this stage in prior halving years, Bitcoin typically experienced stronger price performance.
For instance, the 2020 halving cycle saw Bitcoin’s return multiple reach close to 4x by this point in the year, signaling the start of a major bull run. However, the current cycle has shown limited movement, leading to concerns about whether Bitcoin will follow its historical upward trajectory.
Sideways Trend Impact
This update follows veteran trader Peter Brandt’s analysis of the implications of Bitcoin’s recent struggle to breach its all-time high (ATH). According to Brandt, Bitcoin has not set a new ATH in 30 weeks, a pattern that often precedes a market decline.
If this trend continues, Bitcoin could face a major correction, with the possibility of a 75% collapse. Bitcoin’s current price hovers near its 8-week simple moving average of $60,998, reflecting ongoing uncertainty in the market.
Bitcoin’s Long-Term Strength Against Gold
While Bitcoin faces short-term challenges, its long-term strength compared to gold remains noteworthy. Brandt’s analysis of the BTC/GLD ratio highlights Bitcoin’s consistent outperformance of gold in recent years.
However, Bitcoin is nearing a resistance level at 32 oz of gold, a key threshold that could determine its future trajectory. If Bitcoin can surpass this resistance, its value could surge, with potential targets exceeding 100 oz per Bitcoin.
