Between yesterday and today, the collapse of the Bitcoin price that started over the weekend has ended.
The situation seemed to be critical, but in the end, it turned out to be solid anyway.
Summary
The collapse of Bitcoin and the price analysis today
In reality, although many have defined it that way, it was not a true and proper collapse.
The loss, however, was clear and swift, even though it was perfectly in line with the behavior of the last four months.
On Sunday, the price of BTC was around $64,300, but starting in the evening it began to fall. The decline continued through the night and persisted throughout the day on Monday.
In the end, after dropping below $59,000 with a loss of more than 8% in just over 24 hours, it recorded a small rebound that eventually brought it back above the $61,000 mark.
Today, however, it has fallen back below $61,000, although still above $60,000.
The fact is that last Thursday it was above $66,000, and the previous Monday it was also above $67,000. Not to mention the fact that about twenty days ago it had almost reached $72,000.
So in less than three weeks it lost more than 15%, and on Monday the cumulative loss was even higher.
The lateralization
Although these numbers may clearly suggest that there has been a real and proper collapse, extending the analysis backward, one realizes that talking about a collapse is actually not appropriate.
In fact, the current price is still well above that of February 27, when it rose above $57,000.
Practically from February 27 until today the price of Bitcoin has not yet returned to the levels just before.
In fact, 2024 started at around $42,000, and even on February 26 it had not surpassed $55,000.
After that growth phase, there was actually another one, which, however, lasted only a couple of weeks. At that point, after recording new all-time highs at around $73,800, a long period of lateralization began, still ongoing, during which the price has always fluctuated more or less between $57,000 and $72,000.
It is a very wide range of fluctuation, but this is not at all unusual with regard to the price of Bitcoin.
During this phase of lateralization within such a wide range, the average price around which Bitcoin has oscillated has been approximately $64,000.
The price situation today after the Bitcoin crash
In light of this, while it cannot be said that Sunday and Monday were a true and proper collapse, it can be said that the current price is below the average of the last four months.
The key points are three.
The first is precisely $64,000, which is the average price of the last 4 months, since Bitcoin entered lateralization.
The second is the $72,000, which is the wall beyond which it does not seem to be able to go during this period.
The third is $57,000, which is the bottom of the current lateralization range.
At this moment it is very far from the wall of $72,000, but not yet particularly close to the bottom of this phase. However, it is indeed below the average price.
The last days
In recent days, the price of Bitcoin seems particularly sensitive to the strength of the dollar.
On June 7, the dollar began to strengthen, and this strengthening process seems destined to persist. The hypothesis is that until the US presidential elections on November 5, it is unlikely that the dollar will start to weaken, while after the elections it could indeed begin to do so.
It is not at all a coincidence that starting from June 7th the price of Bitcoin began to fall, dropping from more than $71,000 to less than $61,000 in less than three weeks.
In particular, first on Friday, and then on Monday after the weekend break, the Dollar Index had returned to around 105.9 points, while on June 6 it was at 104, and this probably triggered the collapse of the past few days.
Certainly, the heavy sales of BTC by miners have also contributed, and the news of other liquidations like those of Mt.Gox or the German and American governments, but yesterday the collapse stopped in an unusual way.
In fact, the Dollar Index has risen above 106 points, even though it has now slightly fallen below this threshold, but the price of Bitcoin has not reacted negatively, except with a return below $61,000.
So between yesterday and today the collapse of the past few days has definitely come to an end.
