Coinbase Research on Friday projected a turbulent third quarter for cryptocurrency markets in 2024, citing a lack of strong narratives and economic uncertainties as primary factors contributing to the anticipated volatility.
The reporthighlights that the crypto market is grappling with conflicting signals, particularly regarding the potential impact of spot Ethereum ETF flows.
“The market can’t decide whether potential spot ETH ETF flows will be bullish or bearish,” the analysts note.
The unclear forecast for the U.S. economy adds to the market’s complexity. The report suggests that retail investors may be hesitant to take on new positions in stocks and cryptocurrencies if economic conditions deteriorate.
“Retail investors will likely be reluctant to enter new stock or crypto positions if the U.S. economy falls into recession,” the research team warns.
The beginning of the third quarter has already been marked by challenges, with the report noting, “The third quarter started on a sour note with supply overhangs generated by indiscriminate Bitcoin selling from price-insensitive sources.”
Specifically, the German government’s Bundeskriminalamt (BKA) has been selling seized Bitcoin, which, despite not being particularly large in volume, has unsettled markets due to its indiscriminate nature.
However, there may be a silver lining on the horizon.
“The BKA may be almost done after it reduced its holdings,” the report said. “That suggests some of these market distortions should dissipate soon, in our view.”
The analysts also touch on the ongoing Mt. Gox repayments, suggesting that the uncertainty surrounding these repayments may be more damaging to market sentiment than actual selling pressure.
Looking ahead, the report presented a nuanced view of the economic landscape.
While acknowledging signs of economic slowdown, the Coinbase team maintains an optimistic long-term outlook, stating, “We’ve held the opposite view that rising productivity from the acceleration of technological adoption in a post-pandemic world (including but not limited to generative artificial intelligence models) will kick start a new multi-year economic cycle that could begin as early as 4Q24.”
Nevertheless, the immediate future remains uncertain.
“For now, we expect the price action to remain choppy in 3Q24, as crypto markets still lack strong narratives,” the report states, suggesting that the next two months may produce more volatility before potentially improving in late September.
Edited by Ryan Ozawa.
