Strong USD sends gold to a 3-week low

  • Crude prices rally after Saudis signal output cuts can be extended or deepened
  • Gold struggles as bond market selloff extends; 10-year Treasury rises 11.4bps to 4.191%
  • Bitcoin’s tight range narrows to $28,900 to $30,100

Oil

Crude prices rallied after the Saudis did what everyone expected them to do, they extended output cuts.  The Saudis are doing whatever it takes to defend oil prices and that could mean we could be seeing $90 oil soon.  The only thing getting in oil’s way is a weakening global outlook as several advanced economies are starting to feel the impact of central bank tightening. 

A strong dollar has been getting in oil’s way, but that might not extend much longer if sentiment improves once we get beyond mega-cap tech earnings and the NFP report.  The short-term crude demand outlook should hold up as it is clear as day that the US economy is weakening, albeit at a slow pace. 

Gold

Gold should start attracting once we see the bond market selloff cool off.  The US might have some debt issues over the coming years and that should keep gold supported.  While the US economy has been very resilient, the Fed’s work will likely be done after one more rate hike.  Gold should start to see stronger safe-haven flows as the stock market seems like it won’t be making a run towards record high territory anytime soon. 

The strong dollar trade might last a little while longer, so gold’s struggles might see a test of the $1950 region before buyers emerge. 

Bitcoin

Bitcoin continues to hold onto the $29,000 level as a lot of altcoins weaken as the global bond market selloff extends.  Cryptos like dogecoin, Solana, Cardano, were supposed to have greater growth potential, but they are also vulnerable to surging borrowing costs.  If global bond yields continue to surge, this could spell trouble for large parts of the cryptoverse, which might see altcoins get sold and those funds might flow back into Bitcoin.  

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with TradeTheNews.com, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.

Ed Moya

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