BTC/USD: Is Bitcoin Back?

  • Bitcoin hits $31,000, highest levels since July
  • Michael Saylor’s MicroStrategy Bitcoin position turns positive (average $29,582 purchase price)
  • Major bond market yield reversal keeps cryptos broadly supported (Eth up 3.4%, Solana up 2.4%, and Dogecoin up 4.9%)

Bitcoin is rallying alongside tech stocks as the bond market has a major reversal.  Today’s rally that took prices to a three-month high is not about spot Bitcoin ETF optimism but about a significant reversal in the dollar and 10-year Treasury yield.  Bitcoin could continue to rally if investors continue expect risk appetite prefers risky assets over Treasuries.  The key for Bitcoin won’t just be positive ETF news but will require a peak in rates to be confidently priced in.  There is still a risk that investors might prefer stocks versus cryptos.  As long as the Fed is done with this hiking cycle and soft landing hopes remain, that should be a positive backdrop for Bitcoin.

If Bitcoin is able to rally above the $31,500 level, bullish momentum could support a rally towards the $35,700 region, which is the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the collapse record highs ($68,772) to this cycle’s low ($15,278).

What would really get the crypto world going again is we start to new money become highly committed. Endorsements from Michael Saylor, Elon Musk, or even Cathy Wood will do little to attract new investors.  It is unlikely that Bitcoin skeptics will be changing their tune anytime soon.

Some bitcoin supporters believe that the next halving in 162 days could potentially be the key catalysts to send Bitcoin back above the $40,000 level.  A lot needs to go well for crypto, but at the very least it seems regulation won’t kill the space.

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Ed Moya

Ed Moya

Contributing Author at OANDA
With more than 20 years’ trading experience, Ed Moya was a Senior Market Analyst with OANDA for the Americas from November 2018 to November 2023.

His particular expertise lies across a wide range of asset classes including FX, commodities, fixed income, stocks and cryptocurrencies.

Over the course of his career, Ed has worked with some of the leading forex brokerages, research teams and news departments on Wall Street including Global Forex Trading, FX Solutions and Trading Advantage. Prior to OANDA he worked with, where he provided market analysis on economic data and corporate news.

Based in New York, Ed is a regular guest on several major financial television networks including CNBC, Bloomberg TV, Yahoo! Finance Live, Fox Business, cheddar news, and CoinDesk TV. His views are trusted by the world’s most respected global newswires including Reuters, Bloomberg and the Associated Press, and he is regularly quoted in leading publications such as MSN, MarketWatch, Forbes, Seeking Alpha, The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Ed holds a BA in Economics from Rutgers University.

Ed Moya

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