With the midterm elections just days away, here’s another sign of growing Republican momentum: Analysts have been talking this week about the GOP possibly controlling 60 seats in the Senate after the 2024 elections.
Given their current momentum, it is “now possible that Republicans could end up within reach of a filibuster-proof 60-seat Senate majority in 2024,” wrote Benjamin Salisbury of Height Capital Markets in a note. That’s a reference to the Senate’s filibuster rule, in which 60 votes are required to end debate on most items, allowing the minority party to stymie the majority’s efforts.
Height gives “a roughly 30% probability that Republicans will win 52 or more Senate seats in 2022. That would mean that they need to win eight out of the 12 potentially competitive seats to reach 60 in 2024,” Salisbury said. He previously has said voters appear increasingly focused on Republican issues such as inflation, at the expense of Democrats’ agenda items.
Meanwhile, Eurasia Group analysts said national trends continue to move in the GOP’s favor ahead of Election Day on Tuesday, so they’ve raised their odds for a Republican Senate to 60% — and they’re thinking also about the 60-seat threshold.
“On election night, watch the margins of victory in Colorado and Ohio Senate races and the results of House races in New York, Florida, Virginia and Illinois for indications of the strength of a Red Wave and as a signpost for races that remain uncalled,” said Eurasia Group’s Jon Lieber and Kylie Milliken in a note.
“A larger GOP majority would mean a heightened risk of political struggle over the debt ceiling, a potential for increased tensions with China, and a higher likelihood of investigations of officials of President Joe Biden’s administration,” they wrote. “It would also set the Republicans up for a potential but unlikely 60-vote supermajority in the Senate in 2024.”
Betting market Predictit currently gives Republicans about a 90% chance of winning the House and more than a 70% chance of taking control of the Senate.
gained on Friday as traders reacted to a better-than-expected jobs report, but the S&P 500
was still down 21% so far this year.
See: Republicans have over 70% chance of winning Senate in midterm elections, betting markets say
Also read: Here’s what the midterm elections could mean for the financial sector, energy, healthcare and more
Plus: Here’s how top CEOs are opening up their wallets for J.D. Vance and other candidates in key Senate races