There were 389 people in B.C. hospitals with COVID-19 on Thursday – the highest total the province has seen in two months, but still within the general range B.C. has seen since spring.

As the weather in much of the province finally turns more seasonal, the latest hospitalization data comes alongside indications that a long-predicted rise in respiratory illness is underway, even if COVID-19 case counts have not yet surged.

This graph shows the number of test-positive COVID-19 patients in B.C. hospitals on Thursdays since the province switched to a “hospital census” model in January. (CTV)

The current hospital population reported each week by the B.C. Centre for Disease Control includes both those with severe cases of COVID-19 requiring hospitalization and those who are hospitalized for other reasons and test positive incidentally.

Provincial health officer Dr. Bonnie Henry has said incidental hospitalizations typically account for between 50 and 60 per cent of the total.

Since B.C. began reporting current hospitalizations using this “hospital census” metric, there have been as many as 985 and as few as 255 COVID-positive patients in hospital on a Thursday.

RESPIRATORY ILLNESS DATA

This week’s data was the first to be released since the BCCDC integrated its COVID-19 data reporting with information on other respiratory illnesses, part of the province’s ongoing effort to treat COVID in the same way it treats influenza and similar diseases. 

“Integrated surveillance will better guide B.C.’s understanding of the burden of respiratory illness and its outcomes,” the BCCDC said in a news release last week.

Among the new weekly reports is one that looks at “community visits” for respiratory illnesses, as reported by doctors through the provincial Medical Services Plan’s billing process.

That data shows a sharp increase in doctor visits since mid-September, with most of the surge categorized by doctors as visits for “acute respiratory illness,” rather than the more specific categories of COVID-19, pneumonia or influenza. 

Like nearly every piece of data the province releases about COVID-19, the new respiratory illness statistics are calculated on an “epidemiological week” basis and released the Thursday after the latest epidemiological week concludes.

This means that all of the data released each week – except for the current hospital census and number of patients in critical care – is at least five days old by the time it is published.

COVID-SPECIFIC DATA

This week, the BCCDC reported data for the epidemiological week of Oct. 9 to 15. During that time, there were 628 new, lab-confirmed cases of COVID-19, 174 new hospital admissions, 31 new critical care admissions and 32 deaths within 30 days of a positive lab test.

All of those data points come with caveats, however.

The weekly case count reflects only positive lab-based tests, and tests are only offered to people with symptoms under very specific circumstances. 

The vast majority of B.C. residents cannot get a lab test for COVID-19, even if they have symptoms, and the BCCDC does not collect or publish results from at-home, rapid antigen tests.

As a result of this, the independent B.C. COVID-19 Modelling Group estimated in August that the province is undercounting coronavirus infections by a factor of 100. 

New hospital and critical care admissions and new deaths are all numbers that are expected to rise over time as data become more complete.

Last week, for example, the BCCDC reported 181 new hospital admissions. This week, that number has been revised up to 237.

Death figures also come with the caveat that they count “all-cause mortality,” meaning anyone who dies within 30 days of their first positive lab test is reported as a COVID-19 death.

This leads to an over-reporting of deaths temporally related to COVID-19, with the province’s Vital Statistics agency tasked with determining and reporting the underlying cause of death.

On average, between 40 and 50 per cent of deaths initially reported as COVID-19 deaths are found to have the disease as an underlying cause, while the rest are not.

Though all-cause mortality initially overcounts COVID-related deaths, B.C. as a province has had significantly higher “excess mortality” – meaning deaths above the normal average unaccounted for by a specific cause – than other jurisdictions since the pandemic began.  

VACCINATION DATA

B.C. administered 158,413 doses of COVID-19 vaccines during the week of Oct. 9 to 15, according to the BCCDC’s COVID-19 dashboard.

That’s about 5,500 more than the previous week, and the highest total number of doses the province has administered in a week since February.

The vast majority of the week’s doses – some 113,622 of them – are classified as fourth shots by the BCCDC, meaning they were administered to people who had already received a booster dose.

Of the doses administered from Oct. 9 to 15, 1,424 were first doses, 3,078 were second doses and 8,943 were third doses. The rest were boosters given to people who had already received at least three shots.

B.C.’s vaccination efforts came under fire this week when CTV News revealed that “significant technical issues” with the provincial Get Vaccinated system had contributed to appointments for booster doses going unfilled and people waiting hours on Immunize BC’s help line for information. 

“We’re going to have to work through some of what we discovered in the system and we’re fixing things as we go, there were a lot of little hiccups,” said Dr. Penny Ballem, Immunize BC’s team lead, in an interview with CTV News this week.

“Last week, I have to say, was a rough week and I sincerely apologize to people who had to sit too long on the call centre or just couldn’t get a booking.”

The province has made booster doses of new bivalent vaccines that target the Omicron strains of the SARS-CoV-2 virus – along with annual flu shots – the central pillar of its plans to combat an expected surge of respiratory illness this fall.